摘要：随着经济的发展，政治的变革，汇改的推进，人民币汇率市场化问题日益走进人们的视野，受到国家和公众的紧密关注。我国自2005年开始推行人民币汇率制度改革，改革以来对于要不要进行人民币汇率市场化及对人民币汇率市场化路径作何选择，存在众多争议。通过追溯我国汇率制度的变革历程，分析其变革动因，并总结德国、波兰和印度汇改成功的经验，可以发现我国推行人民币汇率市场化已初具条件。由此，探讨了人民币汇率市场化的必然性及其路径选择问题，阐明汇率改革应该分步进行，以双轨汇率制度作为铺垫，以参考一篮子货币的浮动汇率为过渡，然后逐步调整浮动区间，最终实现完全自由的浮动汇率制度，推动人民币汇率市场化的实现。83602
毕业论文关键词：汇率市场化；路径选择；人民币
The Selection of Marketization of RMB Exchange Rate
Abstract：With the development of economy, the political reform, and the acceleration of exchange rate reform, the marketization of RMB exchange rate is increasingly coming into people’s sight, which concerns the government and the public。 Since China began to implement the reform of the RMB exchange rate system in 2005, there are considerable controversy over whether to carry on the marketization of RMB exchange rate, and how to realize it。 By way of tracing back the changes of the reform in exchange rate system, analyzing the causes behind, and summarizing the successful experience of the exchange rate reform in Germany, Poland and India, it is clearly found that the marketization of RMB exchange rate has already begun to take shape in China。 Thereout, the paper explores the reasons why it is inevitable to undertake the reform of RMB exchange rate marketization and the appropriate ways of pushing it through。 The paper concludes that the exchange rate reform should be carried out to realize its marketization step by step: take the dual exchange rate system as the basic step, peg the floating exchange rate of the currency basket as the following step, then gradually adjust the floating range, and lastly realize the completely free floating exchange rate system。
Keywords：Marketization of Exchange Rate; Path Selection; RMB
目 录
摘 要 1
Abstract 1
一、人民币汇率市场化概论 2
（一）汇率市场化的含义及影响因素 2
（二）人民币汇率制度的变革历程及动因 3
（三）人民币汇率市场化的影响 6
二、人民币汇率市场化的必然性 7
（一）经济快速增长的推动 7
（二）改变长期对外贸易双顺差的要求 8
（三）汇改经验及其成效奠定基础 9
（四）人民币加入SDR货币篮子的需要 9
三、国际上汇率市场化改革成功经验介绍 10
（一）德国马克汇率市场化改革 10
（二）波兰兹罗提汇率市场化改革 11
（三）印度卢比汇率市场化改革 11
四、人民币汇率市场化改革路径选择 13
（一）以双轨汇率制度为铺垫 13
（二）参考一篮子货币、有管理的浮动汇率制度为过渡 人民币汇率市场化改革路径选择:http://www.youerw.com/jingji/lunwen_98671.html