VAR基于行为金融的房地产价格波动研究

摘要近年来房地产市场怪象不断风起云涌，解释房价波动时却用传统金融学的理论已俨然丧失了现实意义，而现今行为金融理论的发展迅速，可以用一种全新的视角去诠释这一现象。因此，本文首先将房地产市场参与者分为微观经济主体和宏观经济主体两类并分别分析了这两类主体行为对住房价格的影响。其次，由于现在行为金融这个理论本身并不完善，还没形成系统的理论体系，而自回归(VAR)模型又恰好有着不以传统金融理论为支撑的优点。因此，本文用自回归(VAR)模型实证研究。最后通过分析发现：羊群效应因子、蓬齐对策因子、正反馈交易因子、逆向选择因子在房地产市场中对房价起着不同作用，其中前两者会对房价造成一个向上的刺激作用，后两者会对房价造成一个向下的抑制作用，但是正是由于他们共同作用，互相影响能够达到一定的平衡和稳定的状态。这意味着可以从房地产开发商信息公开、购房者理性消费、金融机构体系完善以及政府监管调控四个层面去着手影响房地产市场，使其健康发展。82623

毕业论文关键词行为金融房地产价格羊群效应 VAR自回归模型

毕业论文外文摘要

Title THE RESEARCH OF REAL-ESTATE PRICE FLUCTUATIONG BASED ON BEHAVIORAL FINANCE THEORY

Abstract In recent years constantly surging real estate market Guaixiang, explaining fluctuations in prices but with traditional finance theory seems to have been lost the practical significance, and the development of modern behavioral finance theory quickly, with a new perspective to the interpretation of this phenomenon。But the development of behavioral finance theory offers a new view to researching the real estate market。 First of all, In this paper, the real estate market participants are pided into two categories of micro economic entities and the macro economic main body and we also analys the impact of above two type subject's behavior to the price fluctuations。 Then, because the theory of behavioral finance is not perfect in itself ,and today the theoretical system of systems is not yet formed, and VAR model also has the advantage not based on economic and financial theory。 So, this article take this model。And last we through the analysis found sheep effect factor, Ponzi games factor, positive feedback trading factors, adverse selection factor in the real estate market prices plays a different role, and both of which will cause a price to stimulate the role of the latter two will cause a downward effect on prices。 But it is precisely because of their interaction, mutual influence can achieve a certain balance and stability of the state。 This means we can affect the real estate market for their healthy development upon four levels of recommendations about the information from the real estate developers to open, buyers rational consumption, the financial institutions and the government regulation and control。

Keywords Behavioral finance,The price of real estate,Hard Effect,

VAR auto regressive model

1 绪论 1

1．1 选题背景及研究意义 1

1．2 文献综述 3

1．3 研究方法 4

2 房地产价格波动的行为金融学解释 5

2．1 行为金融学理论 5

2。2 房地产价格波动理论 7 VAR基于行为金融的房地产价格波动研究:http://www.youerw.com/jingji/lunwen_97070.html