Employment and Growth Effects of Tax Incentives
To gauge the effect of a change in the tax burden on the real economy, we use cross-country analysis based on Djankov et al (2008). The authors have collected data on payroll taxes (or more generally, payroll taxes and social security contributions), as well as all other taxes that a business has to pay in a given year. These taxes are expressed as a percentage of the gross profit. The data are collected for 85 countries, including Bulgaria.
The data are constructed using a standardized case study of a business called “TaxpayerCo.” TaxpayerCo is a taxable corporation operating in the most populous city in the country. It is liable for taxes charged at the local, state/provincial, and national levels. It is 100% domestically and privately owned and has 5 owners, none of whom is a legal entity. TaxpayerCo performs general industrial/commercial activities.
Under these assumptions, Djankov et al (2008) calculate the taxes that TaxpayerCo must pay in its first year of operation. Respondents provide the full tax schedules for corporate income taxes, payroll taxes for which the statutory incidence is on the employer, property tax, asset and capital tax, turnover tax, business license tax, financial transactions tax, but also VAT and sales taxes. Taxes at all levels of government are considered.
We use these data and regress the employment rate and the GDP growth rate on the level of taxes. We first look at payroll taxes (columns 1本文来自优.文-论^文·网原文请找腾讯3249.114 is to see how a change in taxes affects the real economic variables.
In particular, we see that a 10 percentage points decrease in payroll taxes is associated with a 3.5 percentage points increase in the employment rate. In the case of Bulgaria, this amounts to 260,000 jobs. The result is robust whether one looks at a change in payroll taxes or overall business taxes. Also, a 10 percentage points decrease in taxes is associated with about 1 percentage point increase in annual GDP growth. All specifications account for the initial level of income (using logGDP per capita).
We also test for robustness controlling for inflation, and regional dummies (Africa, East Asia, and Latin America). The economic magnitude remains unchanged.
The results here focus on a reduction of the taxes paid by businesses (the employer). If part of the payroll reduction goes to the worker (the employee), this effect is not captured here and in subsequent analyses. It will clearly have additional beneficial effects, most obviously on the purchasing power of workers, but also on the government budget (as the government won’t have to pay unemployment benefits). In short, the results presented here are a conservative estimate.
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